Sunday, September 7, 2008

Human-computer vocal interaction timeline


We already have speech synthesis that's pretty good so I'd expect it to be perfected in the next two to five years. Speech recognition is getting better but it's still not very reliable even in controlled environments but it seems reasonable given the progress so far that this might also be perfected in the next five to ten years.


The issues of when we will be able to hold a reasonable conversation with a computer has been debated for a long time and nothing so far is even close to passing a Turing test. But there are applications where we don’t need an abstract conversation, we juts need to tell a car where we want to go or find a good place to have dinner. Once we have good speech recognition, many of these simpler interactive applications become viable very quickly. So I'm going to say that in the next 10 to 20 years we'll have the ability to interact with a computer using voice in a way that is useful and reliable.

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