SpaceX Problems

SpaceX failed to get its Falcon 1 rocket to orbit on August 2nd. The problem was apparently due to a small timing error during separation of the second stage from the first stage of an otherwise successful launch. At least that's what SpaceX is saying. Before this launch I had been following along with SpaceX's activities via their email feeds of happy PR stuff. I decided to watch the launch live as they were offering a web feed.

Sadly the web feed was very intermittent and it was almost impossible to hear what was being said. It was still cool to see the rocket on its pad on the tiny island which is part of Kwajelein atoll. Approximate coordinates are 9 degrees N, 167.5 East. the US has a pretty big presence on this tiny chain of islands. We did a lot of bomb testing there back when we wanted to see just how big a bang we could make. A scan around the area with Google Earth shows some of the craters.

I have varying views of SpaceX's progress. On the one had, I very much like the idea that one person (Elon Musk) can shell out some of their own money and start a space program. That is definitely very cool. On the other hand, it takes more than money and enthusiasm to build complex systems. SpaceX seems to have some excellent people and no doubt some of them came from NASA or Boeing or other companies that have active space programs. But what this team does not have is collective experience. They are a new team and teams take time to figure out how to work well, how to ask the right questions without offending anyone. If you read Gene Kranz's excellent book "Failure is not an Option" you can get a feel for how complex the Apollo program was and the incredible level of detail required to plan for every conceivable failure mode. Despite the qualifications of Musk's team, I just don’t think they are working at level of detail.

SpaceX's PR talks a lot about using fewer people and more automation to make the operation cheaper. I think that also translates to less people asking what can go wrong, and if you don’t ask those questions you end up convinced you're got it all covered. So far SpaceX has tried three launches and none have been successful. In the grand scheme of space flight they are pretty much on square one and to expect more from them is perhaps unfair. But the reality is that their customers will expect more than some crappy web video and a nice bang as the vehicle is detonated by the range safety officer a few minutes after lift off. Customers will expect to get vehicles into orbit.

It was a little sad that part of the cargo on this mission was a collection of human ashes including those of James Doohan - Scotty from Star Trek. Instead of a final resting place in space, Scotty is now part of the general debris that floats all over the Pacific Ocean. He's now part of the food chain. I'll say no more about that.

Overall I am hopeful that SpaceX will succeed because we need more people like Mr. Musk to be a bit adventurous and have a go.